OFFICIAL PUBLICATION OF THE NEW MEXICO BANKERS ASSOCIATION

Pub. 19 2022 Issue 1

ecomony-of-risk

The Economy of Risk

A common occurrence in the American news cycle is when a politician touts the overwhelming strength of the economy, citing a low unemployment rate or some other statistic, only to be countered by polling that finds a vast majority of citizens feel uncertainty or outright hopelessness about their own economic situations. Some of that is due to intentional misrepresentation on the part of politicians. Still, there is a genuine disconnect in powerful factions of society about how uncertain the economy has become for most Americans. When viewing every economic trend in America, the first word that comes to mind is risk. Unless you are exceptionally fortunate, it feels like economic risk is around every corner, built into every sector of the economy, sparing only a select few. As a result, it has left millions of Americans feeling quite vulnerable economically, which is only exacerbated by elected officials saying how incredible the economy really is if you just squint hard enough.

Currently, there are competing economic narratives being floated by our government and media, which seemingly contradict each other. First, there is the narrative that the economy is strong, jobs are roaring back, and wages are improving. Then, there is the narrative that inflation is an overwhelming issue for millions of low and middle-income Americans, felt in their purchases of food, household items, and gasoline. These two narratives can’t fully exist without one somewhat contradicting the other. A strong economy, one without large swaths of its population living paycheck to paycheck, should be able to endure inflation. However, inflation does become an enormous problem when you have a fundamentally weak economy, one that has little regard for low-wage workers and saddles its citizens with crushing amounts of debt. So, the fact that inflation is affecting Americans so directly and dramatically shows that, in fact, the economy is weak in many important areas.

Inflation, which is simply a reduction in the purchasing power of money, is most acutely affected by the poorest individuals and households. After decades of dismantling worker protections, many low-wage American workers have been completely abandoned, looking at an apocalyptic economic landscape. Inflation is a factor that exposes low-wage employees to even greater risk. A recent study by the think tank The Brookings Institute details that dynamic. “Price inflation often outstrips growth in wages and transfers, while self-employment income and investment income may be more likely to keep pace with inflation. As such, inflation can reduce the incomes of poorer households relative to those of the richest. Among emerging markets and developing economies, the picture is similar. In Brazil, for example, self-employment and investment income account for a larger share of income in high-income households than in low- and middle-income households. However, the very poorest households also rely on nonmonetary income. Poorer households often lack access to financial products that can protect them against inflation because these products can have upfront or ongoing costs and therefore be unaffordable. For example, in the United States, almost all households have a transaction or checking account at a financial institution. However, far fewer households have savings or investment products. The distribution, moreover, is highly skewed: The wealthiest quartile of U.S. households is five times as likely as the poorest to hold certificates of deposit, six times as likely to hold savings bonds, and 12 times more likely to hold investment funds. High inflation, in short, tends to worsen inequality or poverty because it hits income and savings harder for poorer or middle-income households than for wealthy households. Households that have recently escaped poverty could be pushed back into it by rising inflation.”

Inflation becomes such an overwhelming issue for the average American because every factor in our economy pushes low and even many middle-income workers into more risk. Factors like unions, universal healthcare, affordable public college, and a higher minimum wage provide protections for workers, thus mitigating their exposure to risk. On the other hand, removing these factors, as we have in America, exposes millions of workers to increased risk and a myriad of externalities. These include homelessness, drug abuse, crime, and being able to provide for their children properly. A society becomes weaker when it refuses to take care of its most vulnerable, and the neglect has a cascading effect, which very few completely escape.

On a local level, during its most recent session, the legislature of New Mexico enacted several bold policy proposals aimed at mitigating some of the economic risk faced by so many in the state. This includes The New Mexico Opportunity Scholarship Act, which waives tuition for students attending any in-state public school or tribal college. Another measure is the Gas Tax Rebate, which would provide two additional temporary tax rebates for filers for tax year 2021. The state has also earmarked $24 million each year to the Mortgage Finance Authority for affordable housing, a huge win for low-income New Mexicans. Finally, the Legislature voted to remove the state’s tax on Social Security, allowing seniors a little more peace of mind. These are all terrific steps in providing a bit of a safety net for low-income New Mexicans, people who may need a helping hand for whatever reason. It is so crucial to remember that when a country, state, or municipality lifts up its most vulnerable people, the overall quality of life increases for everyone. New Mexicans should be ecstatic that we have leadership in government genuinely trying to make this a better, safer, more vibrant place to live.

When you look at the plight of the average American, safer, more traditional avenues toward success have been significantly restricted or completely blocked, thus leading millions of people into more uncertain, riskier futures. There are three major components of American upward mobility that have been significantly altered in the last 40 years: education, a job with a decent wage, and homeownership. If you look at the post-World War II economic boom in America, a great deal of it had to do with ease of access to those three things. In the year 2022, a good education, a job with a decent wage, and homeownership are all pipe dreams for millions upon millions of Americans. Higher education has now been loaded with risk in the form of student loan debt. Work has now been loaded with more risk, as many workers have been shuffled into gig economy jobs in the last 15-20 years. Gig economy jobs almost always feature no labor protections, no unionization, and no employer-backed healthcare, placing millions of employees in vulnerable, risky positions. As fewer Americans can afford to own homes, they become forced to rent. Renters are subject to a great deal of risk as well, in the form of rapidly increasing prices and few rental protections.

When we discuss the overarching issues that affect America, economic risk should be one of the first symptoms that are discussed. If you think about your own life, when do you feel most able to make rational decisions? When do you feel most prone to make bad decisions? If someone is on the razor’s edge, constantly worrying about scraping money together, then it is far more difficult for that person to lead a responsible, fulfilling life. We have created an economy in this country where a vast majority people are in that position. When we see all these problems popping up (homelessness, drug abuse, crime), it shouldn’t be a surprise given the economic decisions we have made and the amount of risk we have exposed people to.

New Mexicans should be proud to see their state’s legislature attempting to govern in a way that makes sense and allocating resources to those most in need. Of course, there’s no guarantee that it will work, but it is, at the very least, an approach that allows for a fighting chance. There will never be a silver bullet to solve all of society’s ills, but there certainly are policies that allow for mitigation. New Mexico has taken an excellent step in the right direction in putting resources into higher education and affordable housing. The local level is where you can have the most direct effect and hopefully, these policies will have a positive impact on the state and municipal levels. We must find examples of leadership and governance that work and implement them on a larger scale. New Mexicans should be pleased that their government is giving the state at least a fighting chance of seeing genuine improvement. That’s the least we can ask for as citizens. 

Mark Anderson, Legal and Legislative Assistant, New Mexico Bankers Association